About Kalshi

Marketplace for trading on the outcomes of real-world events

• Revenue (2024): ~$24M

• Growth Rate (2024): 1,221% YOY (this is insane)

Kalshi operates the first fully regulated prediction market in the United States. Kalshi is a platform where traders can buy and sell event contracts on politics, economics, and sports under the oversight of the CFTC. Following its landmark court victory in 2024 enabling U.S. election markets, Kalshi has become the defining player in this new "events contracts" asset class.

This is an industry in its infancy, yet the total addressable market for regulated speculation is massive: institutional hedging, sports prediction, and macro risk management rolled into a single exchange. Kalshi offers investors direct exposure to a category that could mirror the early growth of crypto exchanges or retail brokerages in their first decade.

Kalshi is already powering the prediction markets for Robinhood, Coinbase (USDC), Webull, PrizePicks, the NHL, StockX, and many others.

Why it’s working 

1. First Mover: Kalshi’s edge lies in regulatory first-mover advantage and a strong liquidity flywheel.

2. Regulatory Moat: It is the only CFTC-regulated event exchange in the U.S., with a hard-to-replicate license.

3. User Growth: Daily trading volumes and active accounts have grown over 10× since election contracts were approved.

4. Capital Momentum: After a $300M round at $5B earlier this year, venture offers quickly repriced Kalshi to the rumored upcoming round at $12B post-money; a reflection of institutional demand for regulated alternatives to Polymarket and sports books.

5. Infrastructure Expansion: The platform is now moving beyond politics into sports and macro data feeds, positioning itself as the default venue for event risk trading in North America.

Why we’re interested 

Kalshi is the first true intersection of finance and forecasting; regulated, scalable, and culturally relevant. It offers a rare regulated moat in an industry that most startups can’t enter, in a market that is rapidly institutionalizing. If Kalshi continues executing, it could define the "event contracts" asset class the same way Coinbase defined crypto access or Robinhood defined retail trading.

Notable investors include Global Founders Capital, Sequoia Capital, Neo Innovation, ESAS Ventures, Soma Capital, Ataria, Y Combinator.

Execution risk remains particularly around regulatory scope and liquidity depth, but the asymmetric upside makes this one of the most interesting frontier fintech bets of 2025.

More info

1. Research Memo

2. PitchBook Profile

Press

1. Prediction giant Kalshi strikes a new media partnership with CNBC, days after its CNN deal

2. Kalshi prediction market platform draws VC interest at $10-12 B valuation

3. Kalshi’s rapid repricing: from $5B to $12B valuation in two weeks

4. How Kalshi and prediction markets are disrupting sports betting

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Notes

1. LFG+ Membership: LFG+ Members receive priority access to limited allocation and reduced economics — here are our membership details. To receive LFG+ benefits for this deal, you must activate your membership before Dec 11th.

2. Limited Allocation: we will make efforts to honor desired commitment amounts, but we cannot guarantee full allocations. LFG+ Members receive priority.

3. Limited Information: the information available to us and what we can share will be limited due to the nature of this deal.